The secret of freedom lies in educating people, whereas the secret of tyranny is in keeping them ignorant. - Maximilien Robespierre.

Showing posts with label economies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economies. Show all posts

Thursday, February 15, 2024

Climate Change Scares Used As A Globalist Weapon Against Universal Prosperity

https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/12623227/7331586114374573778

If you have read the latest research on the Gulf Stream published by Science Advances and are naive enough to believe it, you may have been relieved to learn that the world is getting on with decarbonisation quite nicely. The report warns that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is closer to a tipping point than feared due to Greenland ice melt, which dilutes seawater salinity and weakens the gyres.

The collapse could come at any time, it could be nonlinear and sudden, and it could lower average temperatures in North European cities by 5 to 15 degrees – turning Britain into southern Alaska. It would set off a global chain reaction and destabilise rainforests.

Well that's what it says, what may actually be happening is a different matter and as we know, to date every climate change prediction made by members of the environmental sciences academe has been wrong, hopelessly wrong.

We should not, however, be too worried about this latest climate change scare, not only does it contradict the usual narrative that a climatic version of thermal runaway is going to boil us all by tomorrow lunchtime, but it is merely a recycled version of a scare story that comes around every two or three years. I have been reading about the imminent slowing of the Gulf Stream for about 25 years and nothing has happened yet.

If only the scientists had some idea of what they are actually trying to do when they build the mathematical models from which they obtain the data on which these predictions are based, they might have some chance of at least being partly right.

But they don't, instead they imagine themselves the high priests of some crackpot religion who have a mystical direct line of communication with their god, whose name is 'The Science.' Thus they imagine themselves infallible and in their arrogance they have led civilisation towards its own destruction, enthusiastically followed by politicians. Now, with the world on the brink of war and the economies of the liberal democracies in ruins because our leaders have focused on fighting imaginary monsters like climate change and systemic racism rather than dealing with real problems, our nations have arrived for a gunfight armed with a water pistol.

None of this happened by accident of course, thanks to the great liberalisation of European societies in the 18th and 19th centuries, which had actually begun somewhat earlier when the minds of people were released from the shackles of religion and the natural sciences, mathematics, philosophy and the arts began to flourish, spawning the technological and social advances that led to the industrial revolution, a new social class was born. This bourgeois social layer were increasingly well educated, more so in many cases than their former masters, the nobility and landed gentry. The awareness that came from education led them to demand the right to exert some influence over the direction of the nations they lived in. Gradually voting rights were extended sufficiently for this new middle class to challenge the status quo in which since the earliest civilisations had vested power in a small elite.

By the late 20th century this emancipation had spread to the working class, but while the old aristocracy graciously relinquished their social superiority another small group, those who had served the elite, as lawyers, bankers, administrators, managers, teachers and record keepers did not. Taking a very broad view of history, this class seemed to resent the fact that people who worked in trades were now their equals (and often earned more money.) With their ranks swelled by professional engineers,  accountants, civil and municipal servants and other bureaucrats the bourgeois became the technocratic class, aka experts, and set about securing their position as high social status individuals. 

Unfortunately the influence of this class had a suffocating effect on the forces that had driven progress for over two centuries. They replaced religious dogma with their own doctrines of equality, diversity and inclusion and when the creed of this new system was challenged, though they could not fling offenders into an oubliette as the old aristocracy had, they ostracised those who questioned their rules to the extent that careers were ruined and livelihoods lost.

The outcome was loss of trust for the ruling classes and the organisations and institutions they controlled by the wage earning class, still numerically the largest social group. Productivity dropped, loyalty was extinguished, the bonds that held communities together were destroyed and self interest became the dominant moral value in western nations. The experts who had replaced the old upper class were not as expert as they thought, over - specialisation had left them lacking in life - experience, they were big on theory but knew nothing of how things worked in the real world.

Thirty years ago the West was triumphant and liberal democracy had won the day, The Soviet Union had disintegrated, China was liberalising and the first Gulf War had put militant Islam firmly in its place.  The Berlin Wall had fallen and a uni-polar world was born. The USA was the world's sole remaining superpower, China was an industrial and financial backwater and Russia was engaged in the process of detente with the west begun under Mikhail Gorbachev.

Ten years later Russia had become a major player in the supply of oil, gas and other essential commodities, China had come from nowhere to challenge for the 5th and 6th places occupied by UK and France in the world economic league table. Fast forward another ten years and China has overtaken Japan to become the world's second largest economy behind only the USA, and Russia is creeping into the bottom of the top ten (source).

How had China done so well in an open, globalised world? The truth is all the cards were stacked in China’s favour in the business environment, which the Americans created with the Washington Consensus. While virtue signalling leaders had hamstrung their nations' industry over 'green' concerns, China, with a government that made the right noises at climate summits but did not give a damn about climate change scaremongering, was happy to welcome the dirty industries being forced out of the west because of costs and restrictions imposed by The Science for the purpose of 'saving the environment'.

Maximising profit and securing growth in any business from a corner shop to a national economy is all about reducing costs, increasing productivity and getting the right products into the market at the right price.

In the west the green lobby had declared war on 'fossil fuels' had imposed punitive taxes on fuel in order to fund massive subsidies for generators of 'green energy' from  unreliable sources' and imposed restrictive laws on energy users. China had coal fired power stations to provide cheap energy. China had lax regulations reducing environmental and health and safety costs. China had low taxes and a minimal welfare state.

China had a low cost of living so employers could pay low wages. China had all the advantages in an open globalised world.And

Western companies, wanting to earn kudos with the Green Inquisition were eager, even desperate to off-shore production to low cost China, where costs were so low it was possible to ship goods halfway round the world and still undercut locally made goods in western markets.  Thumbs up from Greta Thunberg does not keep the profit and loss account out of the red.

Western businesses could not cut costs sufficiently to compete, and were forced to off-shore more and more production, not just to China but other emerging economies, India, Indoneasia, Brazil, Nigeria etc. in order to sell profitably. They gave away decades of Western superiority in design, technological development, management and business know - how. 

The developing nations offered a new, nimble, fast growing economy compared to the lumbering bureaucracy which had suffocated enterprise and initiative in the economies of Western nations. Investors would be able to achieve better returns in the fast growing far east economies and this is where the money headed. US hedge funds love China and know it’s the best place to make real money.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CaELQS5kTso&t=727s

The problem in the 1990 was that the rules of the game had changed and nobody told our political leaders. Thus we never understood that we we not playing the game we invented to a new set of rules but were in a new game. Politically correct thinking in the west had blinded us to the fact that the emergence of China, India and the rest as economic powers had not just moved the goalposts of the global economy but had relocated the entire stadium.

Now we do understand the rules you can see why we have done so badly. 

 

 

The cards were stacked against us.

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Political elites and super-bureaucrats must be very worried. New start up political parties, dismissed as populist byt in reality listening to the concerns of voters are making inroads into the political status quo. New media investigative journalists and op-ed writers are challenging the official propaganda (and gaining an ever bigger audience). It’s becoming harder to control consensus reality.

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Western civilization at the present day is in a crisis different from anything that has been previously experienced. Other societies have changed their social or cultural values under the influence of external forces or by gradual development. But none, like our own, has ever consciously faced the prospect of a fundamental alteration of the beliefs and institutions on which the whole fabric of social life rests being imposed ...

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If the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) the bank where banks and governments do business is worried about the state of the markets, we are in bigger trouble than anyone is letting on.

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Years ago, an elderly, frail Japanese martial arts master once boasted a 200-0 record against his opponents. He claimed to have a unique power that allowed him to inflict serious injury on people without actually laying a finger on them. Was it Chi? Magic? None of the above. It was a total scam. But that didn't matter.

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Why has so much journalism succumbed to propaganda? Why are censorship and distortion standard practice? Why is the BBC so often a mouthpiece of rapacious power? Why do the New York Times and the Washington Post deceive their readers? Why are young journalists not taught to understand media agendas and to challenge the high claims and low purpose of fake objectivity? And why are they not taught that the essence of so much of what’s called the mainstream media is not information, but power?

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Monday, June 26, 2017

Is Technology Replacing Mind Workers As Well As Manual Workers

Despite a stream of fake news emerging from government and corporate PR departments about the falling jobless numbers and the numbers of new jobs being created in the economies of the developed world, nobody seems to be getting that feelgood factor we associate with economic growth and prosperity. We have written many times of how the jobs allegedly being created are either in the services sector (waiters, burger flippers, bartenders, office cleaners, amateur cab drivers for Uber, parcel delivery contractors for Amazon and other online retailers and so on. So in reality when we think of not just unemployed, but under employed, the labour market is stagnant.



Think tanks, academics and economists have consistently underestimated the impact that immigration and automation would have on the jobless figures. As data on productivity gains and labor-force participation clearly show, even without taking into account the effects of massaging statistics by, for example, reclassifying those unemployed for over two years as "not economically active," and dumping them off the monthly numbers. The claim that innovation ultimately creates jobs by allowing workers to focus on higher-level problems is a fallacy. Were it to any extent true, we would already be aware of the effect of seeing more of the 2 million plus working age people who have inexplicably dropped out of the labor force making their way back in?

The likely effect of automation on not just low grade, repetitive jobs but skilled workers and the professions has been noted many times, and recently in this BBC report from March 2017. After the Thatcher government waged war on the working class throughout the 1980s and much of the 90s, the Labour government from 1997 to 2010 continued the task, their corporate friendly economic policies making it easy for global businesses to export jobs to low labour cost economies while subsidising high tech solutions in UK factories.

Automation is now coming for service-industry workers like those in the retail and food-service industries where the stronest job growth has been seen in recent years. Earlier this week, we picked up on an analysis that showed new atutomated order and pay kiosks being adopted by McDonald’s will result in the destruction of 2,500 jobs at its US restaurants by the end of 2017. We have heard of no plans to introduce this technology to Europe as yet but you can bet it will not be long in getting here.

Financial news website Bloomberg has published a “quick take” casting doubt on this “official” narrative and highlighting the carnage going on in the service sector right now. It notes how economists have repeatedly misjudged how our capacity to innovate would impact the labor market. For example, 13 years ago, two leading economists published a paper arguing that artificial intelligence would never allow a driverless car to safely execute a right turn because there are too many variables at work. Six years after that, Google and others claimed they had proved it possible to make cars fully autonomous (although the dodgy safety record of these cars in real driving conditions is being whitewashed by government, manufacturers and the media. For reasons that have little to do with sanity and much to do with the control freak nature of the political, business and academic elites, driverless cars are being forced on us, threatening the livelihood of millions of taxi and truck drivers. And now Google, Uber - though their driverless venture like everything else that company does is mired in scandal and controversy, Tesla - where safety issues are rife and the big car manufacturers are all exploring and testing this technology. Ford has said it plans to introduce a fully autonomous car by 2021.
“Throughout much of the developed world, gainful employment is seen as almost a fundamental right. But what if, in the not-too-distant future, there won’t be enough jobs to go around?" one think tank tasked with looking at social consequences of technological advances asked. Some economists think that will happen as robots and artificial intelligence become increasing capable of performing human tasks or human tasks are increasingly dumbed down so insensate machines can perform them?. Past technological upheavals created more jobs than they destroyed because they facilitated rapid economic growth. But some labor experts are concerned it will be different this time: Technology is replacing human brains as well as brawn."

When politicians talk about jobs, they tend to focus on traditional labour intensive industries, such as mining, steel production and auto making, that have always been the hardest hit by low cost imports and technological progress. Lately, though, the loss of manufacturing jobs in developed economies is barely significant (mainly because all the jobs have been automated already) compared to the losses happening and imminent in the services sector.

One of the worst his sectors is retail, consumer spending has shown little sign of recovering since the crash of 2008 while online shopping via internet sites. Retail outlets including Department Stores, supermarkets and small, specialist shops which employ far more people than many of the traditional manufacturing industries, are shedding workers at an accelerating rate. In another mainstay of the job market, agriculture, automation threatens to reduce manual worker numbers by over fifty per cent in the next few decades. Average employment in the first four months of 2017 was down in all advanced economies in the world against the same period a year earlier.

If robots are truly taking over, then why haven’t we seen the anticipated rise in productivity that one would expect from increased in efficiency?

While it's true that previously innovation has led to wealth creation, it would be foolish to believe this trend will continue unabated, infinite economic growth is not possible, at some point - and we may have are ma passed that point - people begin to feel insecure. As reported widely in the past, most of the new jobs that have been created are in low-wage, moderate-skill positions that cannot move the productivity needle much, causing the creation of new full-time jobs to stagnate.


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