A day after Ukraine's much-heralded counter-offensive appears to have failed, almost before it had even begun, a major dam in the Russian-occupied region of Kherson is suddenly bombed, prompting mass evacuations as floods spread across the region.
both sides accuse each other of the attack that puts tens of thousands of homes at risk and might even threaten the safety of Europe's largest nuclear power plant.
However, as Raul Ilargi Meijer writes, twice last year (here and here), Ukrainian officials discussed Kiev's plans to blow up the dam.
Andrew Korybko lays out the real narrative here:
The partial destruction of the Kakhovka Dam on early Tuesday morning saw Kiev and Moscow exchange accusations about who’s to blame, but a report from the Washington Post (WaPo) in late December extends credence to the Kremlin’s version of events.
Titled “Inside the Ukrainian counteroffensive that shocked Putin and reshaped the war”, its journalists quoted former commander of November’s Kherson Counteroffensive Major General Andrey Kovalchuk who shockingly admitted to planning this war crime:
“Kovalchuk
considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a
test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova
Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s
water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood
nearby villages. The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off.”
Though all mainstream news organisations are running with the sabotage narrative (and of course the "it's the Russians" narrative,) some more considered commentaries are suggesting the dam, already damaged by previous attempts to blow it up, and under unusual levels of pressure since early May when the Ukraine government drained dams further upstream, thus causing water level in Nova Kakhovan to rise above the safe limit.
from Telegram:
https://t.me/rezident_ua/18140
The dam was simply washed away by water, due to the destroyed spans, which any person with education understands, the resistance of materials has done its job. Moreover, the fact that the hydroelectric dam stood for so long after the HIMARS missile strikes confirms the qualitative approach of Soviet architects.
Now in the information war, each side will try to blame each other, but the dam was filmed by cameras 24 by 7 and the explosion would have been filmed instantly, which means it did not exist.
Sabotage or enthusiastic incompetence? Either way, loss of the dam and the hydro electric power plan it fed is a huge blow to Ukrainian infrastructure although Russia gains nothing from the destruction and will be seriousl inconvenienced by knock on effects as water from the dam supplies most of Crimea's industrial and domestic needs.
Having said that, military experts say the strategic dynamics in the NATO-Russian proxy war in
Ukraine still favor Russia. This assessment is based on the
observation that Russia’s victory in the Battle of Artyomovsk shows that
it’s able to hold its own against NATO in terms of technology and logistics.
Even the New York Times, having steadfastly trumpeted the Ukrainian propaganda line since the war began, has been forced to admit that the West’s sanctions failed to collapse Russia’s economy while endless injections of cash and military hardware from NATO members into the Ukrainian war effort have failed to change the course of the war since Russia's initial strike which Moscow hoped would force
Kiev's surrender within days was blocked by unexpectedly fierce
Ukrainian resistance. Worse (for the west,) it is impossible to deny the proliferation of multipolar processes in the 15 months since the special operation began. These include German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, former US National Security Council member Fiona Hill, and Goldman Sachs’ President of Global Affairs Jared Cohen.
Apparently these people don't realise that the ship has sailed on getting the Global South to comply with US and NATO diktat. The
West’s economic and propaganda campaign failed to coerce the Global South to support America's
sanctions on Russia even among those states that voted in support of hostile
resolutions against it at the UN General Assembly. Many of them were arguably inspired by fellow developing country India’s principled neutrality towards the NATO-Russian proxy war, which showed that they can indeed multi-align between the US-led West and the Sino-Russo Entente if they have the political will and diplomatic deftness to do so.
To be sure, most Global South states were already disinclined
to support the West due to their resentment over being treated so
unfairly by it over the decades, but India proved that it’s possible to
defy their pressure without any serious consequences so long as they maintain balance between both sides. India's subsequent refusal to support the Biden administration's New Cold War and Washington's demands demands to unilaterally
concede on their objective national interests represented a turning
point in global affairs.
Meanwhile water continues to pour through the breached dam and the people of Ukraine, having been chosen for beatification as the sacrifice that would give up its life on the altar of American hegemonic ambitions.
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The introduction of drones into modern warfare has indeed resulted in significant changes to military thinking – which the West has still to assimilate. It is, for example, interesting that Iran apparently considers the idea of an Air Force composed of incredibly expensive modern fighters to be outdated, preferring a huge fleet of inexpensive drones.
Drones result in massive casualties to both armoured vehicles and military personnel, which explains the slow and careful advance of Russian forces. Russia has certainly suffered significant manpower and equipment losses but so has Ukraine: the morbid count of bodies exchanged by both sides was last well in excess of 10:1, if I remember correctly.
The US strategy of weakening Russia has failed completely since Russia is now militarily and economically significantly stronger than before the SMO, despite – or one could argue – because of the sanctions from both USA and Europe.
“Neither the world nor Ukraine trusts Russia” is absolutely not true. Russia has always kept its word in agreements with Ukraine, including the recent agreement not to attack energy infrastructure (which was immediately broken by Ukraine). And the world outside the West is very happy to place its trust in economic relationships with the country.
Trump may, in the case of Russia alone, play the statesman and demand the two sides stop fighting but who are they fighting against? It is USA that started and continues this proxy war against Russia, using Ukrainians and their country as abject, disposable pawns: to what purpose? Precisely how does USA benefit from a “strategy of weakening Russia”?
As I have written before, Russia is a major source of the world’s resources, would it not be more profitable for USA to encourage good relations with Russia rather than war against the country? Or do you mean Russia should be politically weakened, so that USA can continue playing bully boy in the world’s playground?
The world outside the West is tired of USA’s hegemony. USA has convinced its obedient subordinates in Europe to also wage war against Russia at great expense – again, to whose benefit? Does anyone in Europe benefit from this war? Are you going to once again claim that Russia is about to conquer all Europe, despite being supposedly so weak?
USA is also financing Israel to continue its genocide in Gaza and the West Bank, and to continue bombing almost every neighbouring country: how sick and tired do you think the populations around the world are of USA today? The West is still subject to the propaganda pumped out by its mainstream media but that is not the case in the “Global South”. And now Europe is also experiencing just how little it is valued by USA but our glorious politicians are still stuck in their globalist world, much to our detriment.
Couldn't have put it better ourselves.
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