1900 Scientists Say There Is No Climate Crisis - The Hoax Exposed?

 

Millions of people around the world are living in fear, convinced that climate change is about to destroy us. Years of being brainwashed by the constant stream of propaganda pumped out by mainstream media they believe there is a climate emergency. For decades we have been told by the United Nations that Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activity are alone responsible for disastrous warming if the earths atmosphere. In 2018, a UN IPCC report even warned that ‘we have 12 years to save the Earth’, thus sending millions of people worldwide into a frenzy.

However, many scientists dispute with the UN-promoted man-made climate change theory,  while more and more people worldwide are waking up to the knowledge that the whole 'climate catastrophe' narrative is an elaborate hoax aimed at eventually creating a global government. The full facts (which would fill several large volumes were I to list them,) tell a very different story, of a political agenda, corporate greed, the corruption of science and the censoring of thousands of competent and respected esearchers who have challenged the official narrative all in the service of a gigantic scam by power hungry politicians and greedy corporate businesses. 

In a recent lecture, Nobel Laureate physicist John Clauser exposed how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models and analyses, which are relied upon by politicians and activists to support claims of a ‘climate crisis’, do not meet basic standards of scientific enquiry. Clauser received his Nobel prize in 2022 for the observational measurement of quantum entanglement and understands well the problem of distinguishing a physical signal from background noise.

Clauser shows that, when corrected for the IPCC’s error prone arithmetic and statistics, the observational data do not support statistical evidence from computer modelling purporting to showthe power imbalance claimed to be responsible for global warming. Furthermore, the outputs of climate models are at variance with the observational record. Clauser discusses the roles of convection, clouds and their variability in providing a negative feedback mechanism, and proposes that this acts as a thermostat that stabilises surface temperatures. Clauser’s conclusion is that claims of a ‘climate crisis’ lack scientific substance and that Net Zero policies are an unnecessary hindrance.

Clauser’s talk is available on YouTube. 

The Irish Climate Science Forum (ICSF) website is a valuable resource for Warmageddon sceptics founded by Jim O’Brien and responsible for a lot of excellent work in highlighting the scientific flaws in the UN climate narrative. The ICSF provides a comprehensive lecture series from renowned international scientists providing much evidence, analysis, and data that contradicts the UN assertions. The lectures are available at: https://www.icsf.ie/lecture-series

The ICSF scientific view coincides with those of the Climate Intelligence (CLINTEL) foundation that operates in the fields of climate change and climate policy. CLINTEL was founded in 2019 by emeritus professor of geophysics Guus Berkhout and science journalist Marcel Crok. Based on this common conviction, 20 Irish scientists and several ICSF members have co-signed the CLINTEL World Climate Declaration “There is No Climate Emergency” (see https://clintel.org/ireland/).

The reality is that the climate has always been changing, the climate changes naturally and slowly in its own cycle, and CO2 emissions (and methane from livestock, the cow fart scare) are not dominant factors in climate change. In essence, therefore, the incessant UN, government, and corporate-media-produced climate hysteria in relation to CO2 emissions (and also methane from cow farts) has no scientific basis. It appears to me the UN narrative is yet another example of fake science being used to drive an ulterior agenda, see also the book Godless Fake Science.

The claim that Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is a dangerous pollutant is totally ridiculous, as has been repeated probably millions of times by people who bother to check facts, Carbon Dioxide is a trace atmospheric gas that is essential to the survival of all life on earth. The Carbon Dioxide narrative is a distraction created possibly for the purpose of diverting our attention from the ‘real’ pollution, the toxic shite that is dumped in our environment and fed into our bodies by big business, globalist politics and corrupt academic institutions. The reality is that CO2 is a vital component in the diet of plants, i.e. without enough of it crops do not grow and there are food shortages. During daylight hours, by means of a process known as photosynthesis, plants use solar energy to absorb Carbon Dioxide and extract the Carbon atoms which they turn into vegetable matter. Pure, breathable oxygen is released back into the atmosphere. This is basic biology, learned at school, usually between the ages of 10 and 13 by school children in the developed nations. Yet so many people who claim to be 'climate scientists' appear to be ignorant of it.

Unfortunately, many misinformed environmentalists and ignorant climate scientists are driving around in electric cars, the battery production for which has caused vast amounts of ‘real’ pollution via the industrial mining and processing of rare earth metals, and the consequent pollution to land, air and water systems. See also this article. Note that the UN does not focus on the thousands of real pollutants that corporate industrial globalisation creates.

A very simple quote from climatologist Judith Curry: “Sure, all things being equal CO2 may cause a little warming, but all things in Earth’s climate are not equal”.

How many ordinary people have head of John Clauser or other people like him, and how many will ever read an article like this, let alone the type of studies to be found by following the links? I suggest a tiny percentage only will do that. This means they will only be hearing the alarmist version of reality as presented on mainstream media (BBC, SKY News, CNN, The Daily Mail, Washington Post etc.)

There is a little story in a book by Stephen Einhorn called “Climate Change, What they rarely teach you in College.”According to Jewish folklore, The Lord sent two Angels down with a sack full of foolish souls to be evenly distributed over Earth, but they tripped and fell spiling them in a little Polish town called Chelm. 

Soon a heated argument started in the town about what was more important, the Sun or the Moon. After careful consideration the Chief Rabbi decided the Moon was more important because it shone light at night when people needed it and not during the day when there as already plenty of light. It therefore quickly became settled that the Moon was more important. In fact there was a “consensus” and those who disagreed were classed as “Moon Deniers”.

There is something very similar happening today and many people getting their information from mainstream TV News are like the people of Chelm. They don’t look at facts and empirical science. They listen to , and believe Authority. 

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1,200 Scientists and Professionals Go Public With: “There is No Climate Emergency”

 

Ever since the distant days of 2005, when the original Boggart Blog was unleashed on the world our little team have been calling out the massive pseudoscientific fraud that has spread the climate change  fallacy, the idea, based almost entirely on data output by mathematical models of the climate, that the predicted climate change catastrophe is the reuslt of Carbon Dioxide emitted into the atmosphere due to human activity, and the equally false claim that the science behind this notion is ‘settled’. 

We have been called conspiracy theorists and worse, accused of being anti - science and described as mass murderers of third world babies, though how our holding opinions that question an official narrative causes anybody's death is as big a mystery as how a trace atmospheric gas (400 parts per million in air) which is not a pollutant and actually is essential to the continuation of life on this planet can cause the kind of vlimate upheaval that is allegedly happening now.

As it happens the narrative  promoting the risible idea that "The Science Is Settled," and a few other trains of pseudoscientific misinformation used to keep ramping up the fear level among the general public have been kicked in the place where it hurts most by the publication of  The World Climate Declaration (WCD) a study and report signed by over 1,100 scientists and professionals. 

The authors, meteorologists, physicists, biologists, naturalists and well qualified people drawn from a host of other professions and academic disciplines and from all around the world conclude there is no climate emergency. The team led by the Norwegian physics Nobel Prize laureate Professor Ivar Giaever comment that climate science can be said to have degenerated into a discussion based on beliefs, not on sound self-critical science.

The scale of the opposition now gathering against this modern day dogma of ‘settled’ climate science is noteworthy, considering that the climate change dogma was the first of the 'unquestionable truths' of this quasi - religious cult of 'Scientism'  that academics found their career, professional reputation and and personal life could be trashed should they dare to question it. Also over the past two decades it has been impossible for those wishing to undertake a critical study of the very dodgy computer models on which the claims are based and compare their predictions to what has actually been happening in the real world to raise grants for any climate research that departs from the political orthodoxy. (A full list of the signatories is available here.) 

Another lead author of the declaration, Professor Richard Lindzen, has called the current climate narrative “absurd”, but acknowledged that trillions of dollars and the relentless propaganda from grant-dependent academics and agenda-driven journalists have convinced the majority of people in the developed world it is not absurd.

The WCD is scathing about the quality of the climate models, which are usually created not by professional computer programmers but by scientists who think they are better qualified to write the software because computers are 'scientific.' 

In reality computers are not very scientific at all, take it from someone who worked with them for 30 years. They do not "store information as millions of little ones and zeros" or even millions of big ones and zeros, what they do is distinguish btween a positive (+) and negative (-) charge of static electricity. Everything else is instructions written by humans. 

To believe the 'scientific' predictions of such a climate model is to accept that what the modellers have input is a reasonable representation of the real world. In fact it has been known for around twenty years that the computers are not fed empirical data gathered from around the world, but 'adjusted data' in other words information that has been manipulated, presumably to ensure it provides the required answer. Climate models now provide all the evidence referenced in discussions of climate upheaval and independant scientists see this as a problem. “We should free ourselves from the naïve belief in immature climate models,” says the WCD. “In future, climate research must give significantly more emphasis to empirical science.”

Since the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’ in around 1850, the world has warmed significantly less than predicted by the IPCC on the basis of modelled human influences. “The gap between the real world and the modelled world tells us that we are far from understanding climate change,” the WCD notes.

Publication of The Declaration is an enormously significant event, although it will be ignored by the mainstream media and political debate. But this is not the first time distinguished scientists have called for less mathematical speculation and more reality in climate science. In Italy a leading physicist, Emeritus Professor Antonino Zichichi recently led 48 science professors in stating that the role of CO2 emissions from human activity in climate change is “unjustifiably exaggerated and the catastrophic predictions used to justify irrational and authoritarian policies like 'net zero' are not realistic”. In their scientific view, “natural variation explains a substantial part of global warming observed since 1850”. Professor Zichichi has signed the WCD.

The Declaration notes oberves that the planet’s climate has varied greatly for as long as the planet has existed, with  cycles of cold and warm periods. “It is no surprise that we are experiencing a period of warming,” it continues. Climate models have many shortcomings,  “and are not remotely plausible as global policy tools” it warns. The amateur programmers deliberately blow up the effect of carbon dioxide, but ignore its beneficial effects. 

“CO2 is not a pollutant,” the Declaration says (echoing what Boggart Abroad has been saying all these years,) “It is essential to all life on Earth. Photosynthesis is a blessing. More CO2 is beneficial for nature, greening the Earth; additional CO2 in the air has promoted growth in global plant biomass. It is also good for agriculture, increasing the yield of crops worldwide.”

In addition, the scientists claim that there is no statistical evidence that global warming is intensifying hurricanes, floods, droughts and such-like natural disasters, or making them more frequent, and provide datasets to back up this assertion. 

“There is no climate emergency,” the Declaration goes on. “We strongly oppose the harmful and unrealistic net-zero CO2 policy proposed for 2050,” it says, adding that the aim of global policy should be “prosperity for all” by providing reliable and affordable energy at all times. “In a prosperous society, men and women are well educated, birth rates are low and people care about their environment,” it concludes.

The WCD is the latest sign that the ‘settled science’ narrative on which climate change fearmongering is based, is rapidly falling apart as one after the other the doom laden predictions fail to materialise. 

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Climate Scientists' Mathematical Models Of Reality Wrong Again…New Study Shows Jet Stream Strengthening, Not Weakening

The Jet Stream (artists impression) - Source: NASA/GFSC via ThoughtCo
 

 

 By now anybody who cares enough about what is happening in our world turns to alt_media for their news coverage and therefore will understand that 'The Science' on which the climate change scare is built does not base its predictions on data gathered in the real world, but instead relies on evidence generated by 'mathematical models'. This explains why every one of the climate catastrophe predictions has been catastrophically wrong.

But  recent research  by Samantha Hallam et al published in the journal Climate Dynamics looks at the seasonal variations over decades in Northern Hemisphere jet stream latitude and speed over land for the period 1871–2011. The authors report that they found no evidence of weakening of the sort climate alarmists have been warning about for the past three decades.

Conversely the research found that the winter jet stream over the North Atlantic and Eurasia has increased in average speed by 8% to 132 mph. The 141-year trends in jet latitude and speed show differences on a regional basis and that jet speed shows significant increases evident in winter (up to 4.7 ms −1 ), spring and autumn over the North Atlantic, Eurasia and North America. Over the North Pacific, no increase was observed.

Source: Figure 9, Climate Dynamics.

More significantly however, the Jet Stream was found to have shifted northward by some 330 kilometers. Overall, the paper’s findings contradict the claims of a weakening Jet Stream regularly made by the climate alarmists and their media minions and make nonsense of the scaremongering propaganda that links predictions of climate catastrophe to Carbon Dioxide emissions from human activity.

Applying climate alarmist science, we’d have to conclude now, due to the strengthening Jet Stream, less weather extremes should be expected. This would be good news of course. But don’t expect the fear-porn media to report anything about it, most print newspapers can only afford to continue publishing thanks to huge donations from the billionaire psychopaths like Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg who believe that their having total control over the information the public can see is the only way we can save civilisation.

We Boggart Blogger, knowing our readers are busy people who would not have time to read such a lengthy and highly technical report, read it for you, and the first thing we noticed  is that the jet stream has shifted northward.

This explains the unusually warm spring weather here in England over recent years.

A shift northward of 300 kilometers means everyone south of that jet stream will experience warmer weather, so a lot more of the Earth’s dry land area is staying warmer because of the shift of the jet stream to the north. Thus we find that as the Climate Science sceptics have always claimed, the hot summers in northern Europe and North America are nothing to do with a marginal increase in atmospheric levels of Carbon Dioxide, wherever it happens to be emitted from cars, gas boilers Electricity Power Stations and cows' arses.

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It was a story to melt the hardest heart, a tale of global warming catastrophe so tragic even the most stubborn 'denier' would have to accept 'the science is settled' and start campaigning for a one million per cent tax on every gram of fossil fuel burned because the victims were not working class people, but the most irresistibly cute creatures on the planet ...

Polar Temperature Data ‘Proving’ Climate Change Nothing More than a Guess
Dr Benny Peiser who heads up the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), has said temperature readings from the Arctic and Antarctic used to estimate the effects of global warming are nothing more than guesswork. GWPF last month announced its intention to carry out a wide-ranging review of the data underpinning claims on global warming.

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Climate: The Science, The Lies, The Malfeasance and The Deep State
Climate change hoax COLLAPSES as new science finds human activity has virtually zero impact on global temperatures We have previously highlighted this report from Finland which exposes the great flaw in "the science" of global warming. The link at the end of this extract takes you to a much more complete account of the research project which, not for the first time debunks the fake science on which the politically - motivate climate change scare.
Continue reading >>>

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[ Climate change ] ... [ Climate lies composite ] ... [ Climate CO2 overstated ] ... [ Science & Technology ]

6 Facts the Left Doesn’t Want You to Know About Global Warming

 July 14, 2021

President Biden implores us that climate change is an “existential threat” to humanity.

Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry preaches to us that “[t]he climate crisis as a whole is a national security threat because it is disruptive to the daily lives of human beings all over the world.”

Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez warns us that in 2030, “the world is going to end … if we don’t address climate change.”

Hold on to your wallet.

The Left’s global warming Chicken Littles insist that the sky is falling but don’t want you to know six key facts:

Image source: News.Yahoo.com

First, in his new book “Unsettled,” Obama Administration Department of Energy chief scientist Steven Koonin shows that the models relied upon by the Left to predict future global warming are so poor that they cannot even reproduce the temperature changes in the 20th century.

If these models cannot reproduce past temperatures already known when the models were developed, how can they possibly reliably predict temperatures decades into the future?

Second  ....................................... Continue reading >>>

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America and UK Lead the World in Climate Scepticism Several times now it has looked as if the climate chance scare was over as the enthusiasm of climate scitentists for changing real world data to fit in with the predictions of their mathematical models has been exposed. But as the scare was never about the environment, but was a scam to redistribute wealth from rich to poor countries, the politicians are throwing their propaganda budgets behind it again.

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Punish Climate Change Liars" Demands Climate Change Liar
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Will New German Study End Global Warming Hysteria? Although evidence that the global warming scare has been a massive scam in which exponents of various typoes of dodgy science lumped together under the label of climate science, in order to justify massive taxes on everything (because everything in the modern economy involves oil or electricity at some stage) and create a $1trillion per year market for Inventment Bankers and Dr. Evil types such as Al Gore could steal more money from ordinary people, politicians, media contributors and of course science academics have stuck to the narrative.

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U.N. Official Reveals Real Reason Behind Warming Scare
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EU Policy Mash Roils Markets Before Paris Climate Deal.
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Thanks To The Dishonest Climate Scientists, the Public Doesn’t Know Water Vapor Is Most Important Greenhouse Gas.
Yet another exposure of the lies that have propped up the scientific dishonesty and corporate greed behind the global warming scare. Climate change is real, but the climate has changed constantly for millions of years and whatever the final outcome of what is going on now is not likely to be catastrophic. Very minor changes over the last hundred years have been amplified by data manipulation and the likely effects overstated.

We said 2014 was the warmest year on record… but we’re only 38% sure we were right - NASA
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More Global Warming Hot Air, As Climate Fundamentalists Continue Inflating a False Reality

We’re told this week that Washington’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center (NOAA) had finally crunched its numbers for 2014, and Al Gore is a very happy man, as are the armies of amateur climate experts who take government scientific announcements as gospel.

Earth’s CO2 Levels Pass Global Warming ‘Milestone', Nothing Happens - Daily Caller.
After two decades of panic stricken scientists and screeching lefties wailing about the catatrophe that would ensue once the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere passed 400 parts per million, that figure was reached in December 2014.

Insane Science Pushing The Earth Towards Ecocide. At the Daily Stirrer we have suspected it for a log time, science is insane, a game for the ethically challenged and sociopathic to compete to be first to develop a new plague, or a death ray, or to trash the enviromnent in pursuit of political power or corporate profits for their paymasters. There's even a name for what they are doing now, Ecocide.

For every 3 COVID19 deaths lockdown may have caused 2 more - Official

The 4 month lockdown imposed by government on the advice of "scientists" whose mathematical models of reality predicted 500,000 deaths from a virus that realists in the medical profession said poses almost zero risk to healthy people under the age of seventy, may have indirectly caused 16,000 excess deaths in two months, according to government analysts. This is what those medical realists, sensible people in the world of business and a few honest scientists (the kind who believe science is rooted in understanding reality, not playing with mathematical models,) predicted at the outset.

This blog was one which warned that if lockdown was imposed the long term consequences would be more deadly than the virus, had we protected those known to be more vulnerable (the old and frail and people with long term health problems,) We were not alone of course, many thousands of bloggers and alt_news sites gave out the same message, that lockdown and the other measures imposed by government were an insane panic.

The latest report from The Office of National Statistics (ONS) says a reluctance to attend A&E and difficulties accessing medical assistance likely meant that for every three deaths from coronavirus itself, a further two occurred because of the wider impact of the lockdown.

And this is only the start. Down the line you can expect premature deaths from cancer, cardio - vascular problems, diabetes and a host of other heath issues to pile up because of delayed diagnoses and treatmeants due to the lockdown.

These findings provide a possible explanation for the prime minister's recent claim that another full national lockdown would only be considered as a "nuclear option". It would be nice if Boris and his gang admitted they got it hopelessly wrong and fired all the "sciencetits" special advisers and civil servants who supported lockdown, and promised never to listen to such Cultural Marxist idiots again

The ONS estimates, supported by and analysts from several government departments, suggest there were 38,500 excess deaths in England connected to COVID-19 between March and 1 May, a figure that is due to be revised downwards due to counting errors according to government sources.

However, the report concludes 41% of those deaths were the result of missed medical care rather than the virus itself.

Of the 16,000 deaths, the report estimates 6,000 were as a result of a "significant reduction in A&E attendances and emergency admissions".

It states: "Some of this is unmet need, possibly due to patients' reluctance to seek medical attention or other changes to protocols."
The report states that the other 10,000 excess deaths likely occurred in care home settings due to patients having been discharged from hospitals, or not wanting to be transferred to hospital.

Although the calculations found that 2,500 lives may have been saved by people adopting healthier lifestyles during lockdown, the modelling suggests there could be a further 26,000 excess deaths by March 2021 as a result of ongoing restrictions to medical care. We can ignore that bit of course as it is based on mathematical models.

Overall the analysis estimates there could be a total of 81,500 non-coronavirus excess deaths as a result of longer waiting times for non-urgent elective care, as well as increased deprivation resulting from a deep recession. The document was presented to the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) last month, but was only released on Friday 7 August. It's surprising they released it at all, although there are signs accept having lost control of the situation as nobody believes a word of the propaganda any more and people are ignoring mask rules and social distancing and heading for the beach. to enjoy the few days good weather we are due for.


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Scientist who convinced Boris lockdown was the only way to beat coronavirus criticised many times for flawed research

The scientist whose mathematical models of how the coronavirus would spread in the UK and the wildly exaggerated estimates of how many deaths might result from the epidemic reportedly led to the decision to implement a countrywide lockdown and trash the economy has been criticised in the past for flawed research.

In fact Professor Neil Ferguson, of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London, who authored and published a research paper predicting that The UK was likely to see 250,000 premature deaths during a coronavirus epidemic unless measures to effectively shut down the country were taken. It is this research which convinced Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet and advisors to introduce the lockdown.

Neil Ferguson: would you buy a used mathematical model from this man (Picture: Press association

It is, however, always unsafe to accept the word of one scientist or one research project, and it seems Prof. Ferguson is such an incorrigible publicity junkie he has a track record for making exaggerated and sensationalised claims about the probable outcomes of various crises which is longer than the Tour de France course. It is now being discussed publicly that Ferguson has a long established reputation for making predictions based on allegedly faulty assumptions and the results of mathematical models which have nonetheless shaped government strategies and impacted the UK economy. 

It is perhaps no coincidence that the medical research faculty at Imperial College London receives a large chunk of its revenue in the form of donations from the Bill and Medlinda Gates Foundation, which is also the largest donor to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

We have to cease this deification of scientists now. They are not impartial and objective seekers after truth, but are every bit as self interested as the rest of us. And when we look at Ferguson’s career and the disastrous policy decisions his mathematical models have lead to, the best we can say is “He’s not The Messiah, he’s a a very naughty boy,” (h/t Monty Python’s Flying Circus.)
The 2001 model used by Professor Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London concluded that the culling of animals include not only those found to be infected with the virus but also those on adjacent farms even if there was no physical evidence of infection.

“Extensive culling is sadly the only option for controlling the current British epidemic, and it is essential that the control measures now in place be maintained as case numbers decline to ensure eradication,” said their report which as presented to government, but published after the cull began

This mass slaughter – technically known as contiguous culling – triggered disgust in the British public as news video night after night showed the corpses of healthy animals being stacked, soaked with fuel oil and burned, and also prompted analyses of the methodology which led to such an appalling and, as it turned out, unjustified conclusion.

An analysis of Ferguson’s research published in the 2011 paper, Destructive Tension: mathematics versus experience – the progress and control of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain, found that the government had ordered the destruction of millions of animals on evidence from “severely flawed” modelling.

According to one of its authors – the former head of the Pirbright Laboratory at the Institute for Animal Health, Dr Alex Donaldson – Ferguson’s models made a “serious error” by “ignoring the species composition of farms,” (a fairly basic piece of information, it must require a special kind of stupidity to be unable to distinguish betwen cattle, sheep and pics,) and the fact that the disease spread more easily between some species than others.

The report stated: “The mathematical models were, at best, crude estimations that could not differentiate risk between farms and, at worst, inaccurate representations of the epidemiology of FMD.”

It also described a febrile atmosphere – reminiscent of the fear and panic whipped up by attention seeking “experts,” celebrities and the mainstream media in recent week – and suggested that this hysteria allowed mathematical modellers to shape government policy.

“The general impatience that met the wait for the full extent of infections to become apparent, accompanied by an ever increasing number of outbreaks and piles of carcasses awaiting disposal, was perceived as a lack of success of the traditional control measures and provided the opportunity for self-styled ‘experts’, including some veterinarians, biologists and mathematicians, to publicise unproven novel options,” the researchers said.

As the lead scientist behind that disputed advice that led to Tony Blair’s government ordering the mass culling of farm livestock during the 2001 epidemic of foot and mouth disease, a crisis which cost the country billions of pounds was none other than Ferguson who based his conclusion on the output from – you guessed it – mathematical models of a cow and a bacterium, it is absolutely unacceptable that this man’s advice is being allowed to influence government.

And before that it was he who predicted that up to 150,000 people could die from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, or ‘mad cow disease’) and its equivalent in sheep if it made the leap to humans. The BSE panic is long forgotten but BSE is still around and still no cure has been developed, yet to date there have been fewer than 200 deaths caused by the human form of BSE and none resulting from sheep to human transmission.

Ferguson’s foot and mouth disease research has attracted strong criticism in scientific journals and therefore cannot be said to have passed the acid test of scientific research, peer review. It has also been the subject of critical academic papers which identified allegedly unsupportable assumptions being made by Ferguson in creating the algorithms and defining the data for his mathematical
modelling.

When challenged, he robustly defended his work, saying that he had worked with limited data and limited time so the models weren’t 100 per cent right – but that the conclusions it reached were valid. but as every old computer pro like myself knows, conclusions based on incomplete data may be valid in the circumstances but are meaninless. Mathematical models can only be relied on if they are fed all the relevant data, if guesses are made to fill in the gaps then the law of GIGO kicks in, “Garbage In, Garbage Out”.

Professor Michael Thrusfield, of the veterinary epidemiology faculty at Edinburgh University, who co-authored both of the critical reports, said the papers were intended to serve asas a “cautionary tale” about the dangers of using mathematical models to predict the spread of disease when there are unknown factors that can probably never be known.

He spoke of experiencing a sense of “déjà vu” when he read Mr Ferguson’s Imperial College paper on coronavirus, which was published earlier this month.

That paper – Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand – warned that if no action were taken to control the coronavirus, around 510,000 people in Britain would lose their lives.

Naive belief in the infallibility of mathematics has not only led to disastrous responses to outbreaks of disease of course, which is why many people of a naturally sceptical mindset have questioned the way modern academics conflate science and mathematics. Science and mathematics are not the same thing, in fact mathematics is not even a science, although we were all taught at school that is is. Mathematics is, in the truest sense of the word, an art: that is a contraction of artifice, which is a statement guaranteed to have some maths and science fanboys screaming in outrage. The true meaning of artifice however is not something false or dodgy, but something created by humans, something not of nature. And no matter what fanboys (and girls,) might try to tell you, nature does not do equations.

As I have said many time, computes are not infallible, they are only as good as the person who programs them. And there is no such thing as Artificial Intellegence, as Professor Ferguson’s wild adventures in mathematical modelling seem to show very clearly.

The Black-Scholes equation was the mathematical justification for the irresponsible trading in financial markets that plunged the world’s banks into meltdown a few years ago. The brainchild of economists Fischer Black and Myron Scholes, the equation provided a rational way (they believed,) to price a financial contract when it still had time to run. It was like buying or selling a bet on a horse, halfway through the race. It opened up a new world of ever more complex investments, blossoming into a gigantic global industry. But when the sub-prime mortgage market turned sour, the darling of the financial markets became the Black Hole equation, sucking money out of the universe in an unending stream. It was the Black-Scholes equation that opened up the world of derivatives.

The equation itself wasn’t the real problem. It was useful, it was precise, and its limitations were clearly stated. Derivatives could be traded before they matured. The formula was fine if you used it sensibly and abandoned it when market conditions weren’t appropriate. The trouble was its potential for abuse. Unfortunately a fatal flaw was that it allowed derivatives to become commodities that could be traded in their own right. The financial sector called it the Midas Formula and saw it as a recipe for making everything turn to gold. But the markets forgot how the story of King Midas ended.
The world’s banks lost hundreds of billions when the sub-prime mortgage bubble burst leaving thouse who had bought consolidated debt obligations in the belief that property prices would keep goping up forever. In the ensuing panic, taxpayers were forced to pick up the bill, but that was politics, not mathematical economics.

Likewise with Neil Ferguson’s mathematical models of diseases, in order to prevent a disaster which the professors mathematical models say is inevitable, politicians are being persuaded to courses of action that really will destroy national economies on the basis of a largely fictional (if not fantastic,) course of events. We must return to sanity now. Far more people are likely to die in a global recession than are ever going to be killed by coronavirus.

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