Now It's Over We Can Ask Why Did The Polls Get It So Wrong Again?

 For several months now, here in the UK and Europe as well as the USA mainstream media have been obsessing over polls, predictions and pronouncements about the outcome of the American the presidential election. Many of these polling based predictions presented their conclusions with a level of confidence which belied the data, disregarded the limitations of opinion polling and made mockery the democratic process. And most predicted a win for Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris

Yesterday we on the saner side of the pond woke to hear that the US electorate had chosen Donald Trump to be their president again.  So we have a right, have we not, to ask WTF was all that bollocks about polls indicating the Democrats were about to scre a landslide victory that would humiliate Donald Trump and destry the Republican Party about?

Throughout this election campaign I have avoided commnting on the election because things have become so crazy in American politics that to merely point out that the polling companies were skewing data in order to give the impression Kamala Harris was ahead and thus nudge voters towards her was sure to attract venomous attacks from lefties, with accusations that the author murdered grsnnies, ate babies for lunch and habitually molested small furry animals.

There was no point trying to explain that one was not a Trump supporter but simply had conccerns about the way polling companies were skewing their findings.

Here are a few points on polling techniques and the manipulatio9as the case may be,n of data. . First of all it should be clear to anybody with more brain cells than they have tits or testicles  that (as the case may be,) that polls are not able to 'predict' the outcome of elections with any degree of certainty. 

  That has been obvious for some time and manifests itself in different polls having different results at similar times. Turning to the question as to whether the polls are manipulated or used to manipulate,  the latter is more likely than the former...BUT... Here we have to differentiate between who makes the poll, who pays for the poll and who publishes the poll. 

 Many polls are produced by research companies adding or including the questions in surveys they are already doing (e.g. omnibus surveys where clients buy a few questions rather than a whole survey). The cost of doing them is low and they may publish them for free. Some have agreements with newspapers, but when I last discussed this with a very senior newspaper person the view was 'they're not worth paying for, so we don't pay them any more.' 

Clearly who publishes what and how they report/spin it does mean they can be used to influence. Polling companies have always been open about the fact that they adjust or 'weight' results. Some of these weightings are 'everyday' (e.g. weighting it by age and region to match the population) others seemed to be more 'judgemental' (e.g. adjusting for likelihood to vote or the 'shy Trumper' phenomenom).

On the other had pollsters  are in denial about the fact that they present their data with a level of certainty that wasn't justified. Challenge organisation that have published polls which were 'wrong,' and they will cite a litany of excuses, usually concluding that their results were in fact correct but hve been misuderstood. 

Opinion pollsters, of neccessity, have to rely on a number of assumptions, all of which are precarious and easily to be incorrect and the general problems are multiplied tenfold for political polling. The organisers have to assume that they have asked a cross section of people who accurately represent the entire constituency. Which of course presupposes that the pollsters also have a very deep and accurate knowledge of all the demographics of that constituency. 

They have to get answers from all of that representative sample otherwise it will no longer be a properly representative sample. They have to assume that every one of those people is telling the truth about who they support. They have to assume that none of those people will change their mind before polling day and they have to assume that all of them will in fact vote.

If the race is a particularly tight one all of these factors have to be pinpoint accurate. Just one percentage point wrong can skew the entire sample. Then there may be rogue factors in particular cases, such as the data not giving an answer the customer wants and the pollster surreptitiously changing the results. And are all the individuals carrying out the polling 100% trustworthy? I doubt that they are particularly well paid and may well take short cuts to get the job done. Individual political bias is also a constant possibility.

Under all these circumstances, the most surprising thing is that any poll manages even to get close to reality.

A prime example of how polls are used tio manipulate opinion rather than simply reflect it occurred in the Scottish independence referendum of 2014. Shortly after the result was published, in  an article about the “Yes” campaign, nationalist leaders openly admitted that the strategy was to “create a sense of inevitability” in order to suppress the “No” vote in Glasgow, because it could disproportionately affect the overall result. Although they didn't say so in the published piece, it's clear now that the polls produced by “Yes” and its friendly media outlets over the summer of 2014 showing them with a narrow lead formed part of that effort.

Now look at that poll in the strongly Republican state of Iowa just four days before the vote  that put Harris three points ahead in the midwest state. Normally a poll in an individual US state would not attract much attention outside that state, but this particular poll  ecame the top news story not just in the USA but also in Europe and around the world. Though it had been clear since the early of October that the Harris campaign was in trouble and the momentum was with Trump, pundits responded to that Iowa poll by commenting that it indicated a late suge of support for the Democrat and surely meant Trump's bid to regain The White House was doomed.

 In the event Trump won Iowa by 13 points. So WTF was that  that polling nonsense about? 

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Forget The Transition To Renewables - The Elites Are Gaslighting Whole World

 

 

Gaslighting, a term which originates from a 1940s Hollywood psychological drama, is a process, whether intentional or not, of constantly drip-feeding false information to another person or group of people, effectively causing them to doubt their own perception of the world about them. If done intentionally in order to cause the target of the psychological abuse to doubt their [correct] perception it is what governments have recently taken to describing as “nudging”, i.e. gradually pushing or steering the subject towards acceptance of a certain belief or opinion which is contradictory to that person's experience or observation based conclusion.

 At a more crude level, gaslighting, nudging or whatever other euphemistic terms are applied, is simply “lying” in order to deceive the target into pursuing a particular sequence of decisions beneficial to the gaslighter but detrimental to the themselves. And it is a favourite tactic of the billionaire psychopaths who now front the globalist movement. These <a href="https://edbutt.blogspot.com/2024/03/globalists-say-climate-change-is-threat.html">globalists hate freedom</a> and will present the pandemic, climate change, Russian / Cinese / Islamic expansionism, economic meltdown, anything at all to keep the population in a state of fear by presenting it as an existential threat.

If done unintentionally it likely to be part of the behaviour pattern of somebody with a personality disorder, especially Borderline Personality Disorder, in which the other person in the relationship tends to lose contact with reality and can develop strange behaviour in order, initially, to maintain the relationship until something snaps. It then becomes difficult to attribute “intent”.  

The term Gaslighting crops up frequently in news media and is apparent in many forms as part of day to day life. The most blatant and long running example of gaslighting, the Climate Catastrophe scare probably began about 45 years ago but really came to the fore in public perception around the turn of the century when we all being told, loudly and often, “look, the Earth’s temperature is going up at an unprecedented rate”. 

This was untrue. Most of the scaremongering was based on a graph, The Hockery Stick graph, created by 'Professor' Michael Mann, who had he been younger and submitted it as a high school homework project, would have scored a very low mark for committing the juvenile errror of exaggerating the scale on the vertical axis to produce a dramatic image. In Mann's case it was not an error, he knew exactly what he was doing by misrepresenting a very slight and temporary increase in global mean temperature so that it looked as if something really big is happening.

Thus the climate change scare and all its spin offs are based on the deliberate distortion of a graph of a graph, dodgy downward “adjustments” of historical temperatures,  erasure of the several centuries long 'Medieval Warm Period,'  an almost evangelical campaign of scaremongering in mainstream media, warning that the coming Warmageddon would certainly wipe out most of the life forms on earth should we not abandon the use of 'fossil fuels, fo, Mann and his cronies suggested unscientifically, the imaginary heatwave was caused entirely by Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions from human activities which involved the burning of coal, oil and gas.

Sensing the prospect of an unending inflow of taxpaters money in the form of research grants, the climatology community rapidly closed ranks around Mann's flawed mathematical models, and took on many aspects of a religious cult. And there has surely never been any greater example of mass gasslighting than religion.

Within the climate catastrophe cult dissent became heresy and those who questioned the CO2 narrative were banished and excommunicated. 

The process is alive and kicking in UK schools to this day, “Climate Change” (i.e. Global Warming rebranded) is included as part of the curriculum  in many different subjects.

Another example has been COVID-19, the hoax pandemic on which we have written many thousands of words already. The process again began with a propaganda campaign, spreading fear and panic by vastly exaggerating the risk to the whole population of a disease that post little risk other than to the old and frail and the chronically sick or people with compromised immune systems.

Lockdown propaganda had a similar elements, but I wouldn’t call it gaslighting because, rather than being drip-fed falsehoods over twenty years, we were bullied or deceived into submission over twenty days. That said, the occasional medical person I come into contact with still talk as though Covid 19 is an existential threat and that masks and vaccines are safe and effective. Even though it is now known that Lockdowns did more harm than good, the vaccines were totally ineffective as either a prophylactic or a therapy, and masks accelerated rather than slowing, the spread of the disease, the nudging continues.

An important element for the success of gaslighting is that the target should have strong emotional motivation to keep the relationship working, be it within a family or between a loyal citizen and the state and governments along with their whores in business, academic communities, the media and the medical professions have such an incentive. Governments can only rule with the consent of the people. Having lost our trust they understand that they must now keep enough of us in a state of fear to stave off the withdrawal of consent.

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Crowds Are Stupid; Wisdom Is Solitary

Do you even get the feeling when you are online that in spite of Google's claims to order search results primarily according to quality, the good stuff is actually being concealed from you? If so, you will not be surprised to learn that unless you are running TOR and Tails, it is. Some critics of the way the web has been hijacked by a few technology corporations say as much as 96% of online content is inaccessible to Joe Ordinary and you (but not me, I had a long career in data networking; although I would not put the figure as high as 96% unless you use exclusively Google for search. 90% would probably be nearer.). 

A few years ago, tired of hearing that idiotic dictum of  Bill Gates (the man who made 'not fit for purpose' an acceptable quality rating,) and other Silicon valley mind manipulation artists about The Wisdom Of Crowds, I posted online an essay, Shakeaspeare's Proud Loner and The Widom Of Crowds to explore this wisdom of crowds phenomenon.
It's good to see more and more people are thinking on the same lines.  Even if this writer is discussing Democratic and Republican Party political philosophies, if you are patient enough to read the whole article (linked at the end of this extract) he comes to some interesting conclusions about groupthink, and how opinion is manipulated.

from Zero Hedge

Submitted by Robert Gore via StraightLineLogic.com,

Have you ever won or lost a political argument? Have you or an opponent ever said: “Your facts and logic are overpowering, I have to concede that you’re right.” It’s never happened, has it? It doesn’t happen because politics has little to do with facts and logic. It’s anchored in emotions that take root in infancy and are so deeply ingrained they are undoubtedly part of humanity’s evolutionary code. No bond is more enduring than that between parent and child, and none is more laden with psychological baggage. While political argument will always be a frustratingly fruitless endeavor, you can at least understand why this is so, and perhaps avoid wasting your time.

The first lesson infants learn, evolutionarily hardwired, is that mom provides. She supplies the physical basics, and psychological sustenance as well. She smiles and coos, delighted by almost everything her baby does. “Mom,” as in mom and the apple pies she cooks, has a sacred, unrivaled place in the human conscious and subconscious. Insulting someone’s mother is an invitation to a fight. Whether you realize or admit it or not, the person that bore, gave birth, and nurtured you through childhood has a outsize presence in your psyche.

“Branding” is a marketing buzzword, but one of some intellectual value in a field littered with useless emissions. If you’re trying to sell something, you want consumers to associate your product or service with a simple but psychologically powerful concept. Food companies and restaurant chains sell healthy and delicious, or tie eating into warm memories. Purveyors of athletic clothes and footwear link themselves with athletic excellence. The fat blob swilling beer on the couch gets winded going to the refrigerator, but wears Nike sweats. Cosmetic and fashion companies peddle hope to millions of women and men who will never look like the models who show off the merchandise. Insurance and home security companies sell fear.

Read all Crowds Are Stupid, Wisdom Is Solitary  >>





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Hollywood Celebrities Who Are Not Hillary Fans
Watch or read mainstream news or get your info from celebrity gossip websites and you could be forgiven for believing that all media / showbiz celebs in the USA are devoted fans of the rent - boy president, Barack Hussein Obama and his anointed successor Hillary Clinton. It is not so ...

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Over 10% of Germans Believe Country Needs Fuhrer

According to a public opinion poll published today, over10 percent of Germans think their country needs a fuhrer-like leader, who will rule with an iron hand, the study by the University of Leipzig said.

A total of 10.6 percent of 2,420 respondents agreed with the statement "We must have a fuhrer, who will rule with an iron hand for common prosperity." Almost 15 percent more said that they partially agree and partially disagree with the statement.

Slightly more than 8 percent of people who took part in the exercise said that national socialism has positive aspects with more than 20 percent having no opinion on the issue. Six percent of respondents said that from their point of view the crimes of national socialism were widely exaggerated.

The survey also indicated that 12 percent of the people polled believed that the Germans are naturally superior to other nations. Now there's a surprise. Oi Fritz, two World Wards and one World Cup.

The study observed that the number of people with far right sentiment has changed little since 2014 but added that radical groups show more support for violence as a tool for protecting their interests.


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Elsewhere: [ The Original Boggart Blog] ... Daily Stirrer ...[Little Nicky Machiavelli]... [ Ian's Authorsden Pages ]... [Scribd]...[Wikinut] ... [ Boggart Abroad] ... [ Grenteeth Bites ] ... Ian Thorpe at Flickr ] ... [ Tumblr ] ... [Ian at Minds ] ... [ Authorsden blog ] ... [Daily Stirrer News Aggregator]