Though it was entirely predictable and indeed had been expected for some time, the news over the weekend that the Nord Stream 1 pipeline which feeds gas from Russia to northern Europe via The Baltic route had been shut down completely by The Kremlin in retaliation for the continued financial and military support given by NATO and EU member states to Ukraine in the conflict with Russia. The European Commission, governing body of the EU, immediately put the community on something close to a war footing, imoing war economy style regulations. Russia then made clear its position, that unless sanctions are dropped, no gas will *ever* flow through Nord Stream 1 again. The potential economic damage began immediately as the EURO ( € ) dipped below US$0.99 for the first time in 20 years.
Benchmark Dutch TTF gas was up hugely at first before closing ‘only’ 17% higher on open recognition that while much bad news is now priced in, Europe is really in the economic war this blog has warned of since February, just days after Russian troops crossed the border into Ukraine.
Russia’s move is so blatant as to amount to an official declaration of war. There is no way European propaganda can spin this as a temporary situation due to ‘technical issues’ with the pipeline. This is a case of Putin and Russia's allies holding a gun to NATO and the EU’s head, such is the extent of European dependence on Russian natural gas. So was OPEC+ agreeing on a token 100,000 barrel a day cut to production. So was Iran saying no to the nuclear deal unless the IAEA backs off from investigating the serious breaches of the last nuclear deal it didn’t stick to.
Assuming Europe cannot retreat from its current total committment to prolonging the war in Ukraine by continuing to provide the neo - Nazi nutters in Kiev with money and military hardware, that means a severe recession with very high inflation, and if anything were to happen to gas flows via Ukraine, which could easily occur as Russia has not yet deployed its air power in this conflict, Europe would need to make swingeing cuts to energy consumption in order to avoid unplanned ‘gas outs’ and electricity rationing.
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck
said: “Expect the worst.” As mentioned yesterday,
existential choices now need to be made, because due to political virtue signalling 'net zero' pledges made by NATO and EU governments, and foolhardly transitioning to unreliable and intermittent 'sustainable' energy sources there may not enough
energy to go round. It is time for politicians to stop sucking up to the unwashed crustries of the green lobby and prioritise the needs of the people.
First, Germany is to delay mothballing some nuclear reactors – so common sense at gunpoint.
It is unlikely Europe and the UK will not ration energy because it means the
staggering bills already being seen will continue to rise, and then stagflation, incession, or
‘inpression’ (an inflationary depression). They may instead
subsidize businesses and households even if that means wholesale energy
prices march even higher. Whether any will have the testicular fortitude to admit the folly of the past two decades and recommission coal and gas fired generators really depends on the extent of the public backlash.
Germany’s latest EUR65bn energy bailout is already providing such a subsidy but the trouble with such stop - gap policies is they only kick the can down the road; so will Sweden’s and the Netherlands’ measures, and France’s and Spain’s: and Brussels is talking about an EU-wide energy price cap. Only part of these subsidies will flow from windfall taxes on the energy companies which are raking in vast profits from the current shortages. Taxes also remove the industry capital needed to invest in new energy supply. New UK PM Liz (Chuckie)Truss, just selected with an underwhelming 57% mandate of a tiny Tory electorate, has also floated Covid-furlough sized spending to cap business and household energy bills; and huge tax cuts; and a 2.5% trend GDP growth rate target. Good luck with the latter.
Borrowing
or printing money to pay for imported energy (in dollars), while
running rising twin deficits is a great way to destroy one’s currency –
which means higher inflation, and not transitory currency weakness but permanent inflation and the destruction of people's savings and pensions.
So we see that while mainstream media in Europe and North America continues to push the 'Ukraine is winning' narrative to justify the huge cost to western nations of supplying Ukraine with high tech weapons and ammunition, an objective analysis of the real war reveals that as long as Russia can continue to provide the distraction on the ground in Ukraine to deflect the attention of citizens of Ukraine's allies, economically Putin and his allies are destroying the west and further shifting the balance of geopolitical power to the east.
RELATED:
Newly appointed UK Prime Minister Liz Truss - be afraid
Jingoistic Western Triumphalism Will Not End The War In Ukraine Or Cripple Putin, But It Is Crippling Western Nations
As the war in Ukraine grinds on and Russia steps up its economic war against the west and in particular The European Union, claims made recently by the idiotically 'woke' leaders of Europe's main economic and military powers that the West has a once-in-a–generation chance to severely weaken Russia’s capabilities, both militarily and geopolitically, look increasingly hollow. Putin's critics have cited 'Western unity' as one of the main reasons why Russia will be economically destroyed and politically humiliated when the Ukraine's military finally claim victory.
European Union Is Again Close To A Meltdown As Eurozone Economy Collapses
Once more we return to the political instability and economic fragility of the European Union as the conflict in Ukraine combined with loonytoons Climate Change mitigation policies, the failure of 'sustainables' to meet ever increasing demand for electricity, fod shortages and rampant price inflation put economic and social pressure on governments of member states ...
Debunked: The Great Renewable Green Delusion
The war in Ukraine has not caused the global energy crisis of early 2022 byt merely exacerbated it. Currently the nations currently in conflict with Russia over its incursion into Ukraine are those which are most dependent for their energy needs on Russian oil and gas. And now their loonytoons 'net zero' green energy policies have failed they are biting the hand that feeds them.
Putin, Macron To Hold Urgent Talks To Halt Military Escalation In Ukraine
Even though the leaders of Ukraine itself are talking down the threat of war with Russia over the breakaway region of Donbas, America and Britain are still beating the war drums and demonising Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Russia insists they have no plans to invade Ukraine and one western leader at least, France's Emmanuel Macron, seems to be listening to messages coming out of the East European trouble spot...
British Government Laundered Fake U.S. 'Intelligence' On Ukraine
The British government on Saturday accused Russia of organizing a plot to install a pro-Moscow government in Ukraine, as the Kremlin masses troops near the Ukrainian border. The U.K. Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office gave relatively little information about the intelligence unveiled Saturday other than to say that the Russian government was considering trying to make a Russia-leaning former member of Ukraine’s parliament, Yevhen Murayev, the country’s new leader. Continue reading >>>
Net Zero Is A Dangerous Fantasy, But Scientists Believe In Fairies It Seems
With oil and gas prices rocketing and the highly propted sustainable energy sources performing way befow expectations the energy crisis currently gripping Europe (with worse to come as food shortages start to bite, polticians still seem more intent on pandering to the green lobby and chasing the dream of a fossil fuel free world rather securing the energy and food supplies needed by the people they serve.
A Mostly Wind- & Solar-Powered US Economy Is A Dangerous Fantasy
When President Biden and other advocates of wind and solar generation speak, they appear to believe that the challenge posed is just a matter of currently having too much fossil fuel generation and not enough wind and solar; and therefore, accomplishing the transition to "net zero" will be a simple matter of building sufficient wind and solar facilities and having those facilities replace the current ones that use the fossil fuels.
Europe's biggest economy would suffer a 6.5pc contraction if Russian energy is suspended, experts warn
Even though the sanctions already imposed on Russia in respondse to the invasion of Ukraine are hitting the nations that imposed then harder that their intended target, the EU is preparing to committ economic suicide in an orgy of virtue signalling ...
Do We Have A Winter Of Civil Disobedience Ahead?
As many people in Britain slap on the apres sun gloop in the wake of what passes for a heatwave in these cool cloudy climes, our inept politicians caught with their pants down by unusual weather as usual have heard that that winter is coming and are making plans for a coldwave.
We are in the grip of an energy crisis at the height of summer. Last week, it was reported that the UK government is laying down plans for a “reasonable worst-case scenario” including blackouts for industry and even households. And this is as energy prices spiral out of control to new records every day.
The Truth About Coal And The Lies Of The Elite
So much for all the COP 26 banter late last year. Let me remind you. The elites all flew in on their private jets and promptly told us we’re all (royal we) getting off fossil fuels and killing coal.So how’s that turning out?
The usage of coal is now at record highs:
Britain is Breaking Down; The Economy Is Struggling, Living Standards Are Falling, Institutions Are Failing
Successive governments have brought Britain to its knees.This article will focus on Britain as representative of the general malaise that is afflicting almost all the developed world. Our current crop of politicians have discarded the resources that brought the country out of the post war decline ... In spite of being rich in energy resources Britain is now in an energy crisis, our leaders have sacrificed prosperity on the altar of Net Zero, committing the nation to our reducing our 1% contribution to harmful emissions still further ...
The UK government is putting plans together for days of organised blackouts this winter, in what they call a "reasonable worst-case scenario" for energy shortages, according to reports in manstream media. Naturally they are blaming this on the embargo on importing gas from Russia but in reality Britain has never imported any more than a small amout of its gas from Russia. The real reason politicians and energy company CEOs are panicking is entirely due to their obession with obtaining all our energy from intermittent sources like wind and sunshine ...
"Revolution Has Begun": 75,000 Brits Plan To Stop Paying Power Bills In Protest At Energy Rip Off
Resistance is growing to spiralling domestic energy costs in Britain as more than 75,000 irritated people in the UK have pledged not to pay their electricity bill this fall when prices jump again.
Even If The War In Ukraine Ends, Sanctions Will Stay - So How Bad Will The Food Crisis Get?If the government & energy companies refuse to act then ordinary people will! Together we can enforce a fair price and affordable energy for all," tweeted "Don't Pay UK," an anonymous group spearheading the effort to have more than one million Brits boycott paying their power bill by Oct. 1.
Is Russia Selling Its Oil To The World Through An Obscure Egyptian Port?
As this blog predicted when NATO and EU member states shot themselves in the foot by reacting to Russia's invasion of Ukraine with sanctions that prevented Russia from selling oil, gas and vital raw materials to the countries that needed them most, the NATO and EU member states, the Russians have had no problems finding alternative customers for their gas and oil and no problem getting oil into the world's commodity markets through the back door.Russian Long Range Missile Test Fuels Nuclear War Fears As NATO Pushed Ukraine To Escalate Conflict
Russia tested its latest intercontinental ballistic missile yeserday, the Satan II has a range of 10,000 miles and can devastate an area of 250,000 square kilometers according to military experts. Bizarrely commentators in mainsteam and online news services portrayed this as a sign of weakness by Russia, though the same people cheered when Joe (Dementiaman) Biden threratened a nuclear response if Russia crossed his 'red lines' in Ukraine ...We The Good Guys Versus They The Bad Guys Reporting Does Not Make Sense For The Ukraine Crisis
Mainstream media reporting of the conflict in Ukraine has disappointed. Perhaps I was naive to suppose that lessons might have been learned from the hits their print sales and online traffic rates took as a result of their handling the COVID pandemic But instead of focusing on the most obviously newsworthy aspect of the build up to and escalation of the war, Russia’s view of NATO expansion into Ukraine and even further to Georgia and Kazakhstan, news reports have simply demonised Russia and portrayed Ukraine as the good guys.Boris and Biden Can't Blame Ukraine War For Energy Crisis
With typical arrogance and condescension towards the people who elected them Boris Johnson, Joe Biden and their respectiive presstitutes are trying to spin the energy crisis Europe and North America are currently facing as somehow being linked to the conflict in Ukraine and therfore blame is being attactched to Russia and Vladimir Putin. Do they really think we are stupid enough to believe such unmitigated bollocks? ...
Western leaders, desperate to show their own countries they were taking a firm stance on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, were quick to impose economic sanctions ... so quick in fact that they acted before they had though things through. While freezing Russia out of the global finance system they have exacerbated the wests energy crisis, while Russia's retaliatory ban on raw materials (fertiliser) exports will create extra problems on top of those we already had ...
Europe's Depleted Gas Storage Might Not Get Refilled Ahead Of Next Winter
While mainstream news reporting of the conflict in Ukraine continues to pump out a torrent of anri - Russia, pro - war propaganda the catastropic effects of this war that could so easily have been avoided are not mentioned. Well why would warmongering governments admit they have inflicted an energy crisis, food shortages and soaring living costs on their people for no good reason ...
Biden (or his administration) has been responsible to a large degree in encouraging Putin to invade Ukraine, because shutting off the XL pipeline caused the recent oil price surge. The late Senator John McCain said this of Russia: “Russia is an old gas station, masquerading as a country”. All Russia does is oil and gas , plus some raw materials too.That somewhat understates the range of the Russian economy but there is some truth in it. Russia exports raw materials and grain.
The way to undermine Putin’s ambitions is to open up the oilfields and gas fields so eagerly abandoned by the west in our leaders eagerness to earn green kudos from the tree huggers. Drill for oil, frack for oil and gas, recommission wells closed and capped because in the face of cheap Russian imports they were unprofitable. Get the oil and gas prices down and ensure energy stability with controls in place to ensure that spinless politicians, fearful of upsetting the noisy but numerically insignificant eco - warrior contingent can never again make us dependent on a potentially hostile power for the means to keep ourselves warm and well fed. This is where demented Joe Biden and cunt - struck Boris Johnson have made a series of enormous mistakes, and Biden in particular has handed Putin on a platter a lot of financial power.
When oil prices got to U$150 a barrel in 2008, Putin took Georgia. Oil prices settled but then in 2014 the price went to U$100, and Putin annexed Crimea. With the fracking revolution under first Barack Obama (in betrayal of the idealogues who voted for him,) and then Donald Trump led to the USA being self sufficient in oil and natural gas, the oil price dropped to between U$25 to U$45 a barrel. You never heard from Putin.
In the past year the oil price has jumped from U$50 to U$100 and Putin made around U$85bn in profit from that. He is using that money to finance his war in Ukraine. The lesson is ‘crank uo the oil pumps and open the gas taps.'
Biden and Boris Johnson have been doing exactly the reverse in pursuit of unrealistic 'net zero' policies. Johnson refused to issue more oil and gas licences in the North Sea, fracking is still in limbo, and the enormous reserves around the Outer Hebrides are untapped. Johnson (or whoever suceeds him now he has been disgraced,) and Biden by keeping oil and gas in short supply and price high, are helping Putin.
America could produce 15m barrels of oil a day, but currently is only pumping 11.5m Why? More oil in the market and the price goes down and Putin is stuck in Ukraine.The North Sea, with 24 billion barrels of oil left in known reserves and estimates of another 40 billion yet to be exploited, could make Britain self sufficient in oil and gas for at leasy half a century, and our islands still stand on a foundation of high quality coal
The answer to thwart Putin is to get the oil price down. Reinstate the Keystone pipeline, get drilling in Alaska, the North Sea and Outer Hebrides.
However none of this will be allowed in 'woke' world. The people acting as puppeteers of poor demented Joe Biden are intent on humiliating Russia, wrecking the Russian economy and engineering the overthrow of Vladimir Putin, with the added bonus that once these goals are achieved their corporate, globalist cronies will be able to step in and 'annexe' Russia's massive mineral, hydrocarbon and metal resources.