The secret of freedom lies in educating people, whereas the secret of tyranny is in keeping them ignorant. - Maximilien Robespierre.

Showing posts with label reserve currency. Show all posts
Showing posts with label reserve currency. Show all posts

Monday, September 04, 2023

The New World Order Versus The BRICS World Order

 

Last week’s Brics summit was supposed to herald the dawn of a new world order. It would announce the end of the American era and the rise of another, this time belonging to developing nations. It would even, according to excitable analysts, be remembered as another Bandung Conference, the 1955 meeting that paved the way for a non-aligned movement during the Cold War.

And on that front, the gathering in Johannesburg succeeded. The organisation announced its first expansion since its founding in 2009: next year, the five original Brics members — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — will be joined by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia and Argentina (provided the current government wins the upcoming elections, which seems unlikely). Even more significantly, the summit underscored the bloc’s inclination to use its increasing economic clout to challenge the Western-dominated global order. The combination of these two elements — growing economic muscle and political boldness — means that the bloc (to be renamed Brics Plus) has become a full-blooded geopolitical actor that can longer be ignored.

However western soft power is still too strong for Brics or Brics plus or Brics Alpha to have much immediate effect. Only time will tell whether it has long term staying power.

As long as the global population consumes Hollywood and Westen media, wears Westen luxury brands and accessories, aspires to western luxury vehicles, reads western content, sends their children to western schools, colleges and universities, prefers western sons and daughters in law, maintains savings in dollars, euros and pounds in western banks in western countries, this new bloc will have a mountain to climb if it is to fulfill the ambition to undermine American hegemony and replace the US$ as the global reserve currency. There are signs though that steady progress is already being made towards achieving those goals.

On the other hand, the Achilles’ heel of the USA and its NATO and EU allies is the finances of western, debt dependent economies – and especially in the use of the dollar as a reserve currency. This is the area in which BRICS can pose the greatest threat: if the dollar fails America fails. And NATO / EUmember states will be dragged down with it.

For comparison, the downfall of the British Empire was as much about declining financial strength as anything else. Having built up an enormous pool of investments by 1914 in America, Argentina, India, etc etc it had to sell half to finance WW1 and the rest for WW2. By 1945 it was running on IOUs of which one form was the continued willingness of many countries to hold their reserves as Sterling at the Bank of England. The history of 1945 to 1975 was largely a matter of these IOUs coming due and the British trying to cut their colonies, overseas garrisons and other commitments to economise – and simultaneously becoming subservient to their largest creditor, America.

Today America appears to be where Britain was then. The only difference is that Washington has dissipated its foreign investments and sold its bonds to the highest bidder in order to finance a credit driven boom rather than two world wars. American indebtedness at all levels is truly astounding.

The Chinese have long been adept at exploiting weaknesses in the West’s financial and foreign policies and usually astute enough to avoid challenging western supremacy where it cannot win. On a military level, they developed relatively cheap long range missiles which have neutralised the US Pacific fleet. Now they are using the BRICS to hit America where it will hurt financially – by pushing the de dollarisation of official reserves and the oil futures market.

The Chinese are playing a more crafty game in this new Cold War than the Russians did in the old one – or Putin has recently. Maybe Go produces subtler strategists than Chess or Poker.

 

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A geopolitical move by the globalist control freaks that began as a seemingly innocuous hypothetical discussion several years ago now appears to have become a deep state / corporate policy backed by a propaganda campaign involving some of the most powerful commercial and government agencies in the industrialized world. Throughout this omnibus web page we have called it the War on Cash.

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Sunday, April 23, 2023

Dedollarisation Gathers Pace As Biden's Administration Gathers Dust

 In spite of our resident money and finance expert, along with myself and other contributors regularly being described as anti - American clowns, employees of Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping, Nazis, capitalist scum and a some rather more colourful things when we write about currency wars and the decline of the US$ as China, Russia, Iran and other emerging economies plot and conspire to replace the US$ as global reserve currency, de - dollarisation is a fact.  From Brazil to Saudi Arabia, and from India to Argentina, and increasing number of nations are 'reportedly' shifting away from the dollar hegemon.

The Dollar Index (or any other index tracking movements in the currency market) reveals an underlying trend. Year on year for the past decade the dollar's share of world trade is declining. This is a relative measure of course, US pseudo - patriots will be able to point to increases in the total amount of trade done in dollars, it's true. But the global economy is growing too, and the amount of trade done in dollars as a proportion of all international trade is steadily declining. 


Picture: Zero Hedge

The dollar's fecal emissions are some way from hitting any rapidly rotating wind turbine yet,  but Stephen Jen, a currency trading guru  who now runs money at Eurizon SLJ,  recently speelled out exactly how rapidly the de-dollarization is ocurring.

Jen, warned in a recent briefing, that the dollar is losing its reserve status at a faster pace than generally accepted, as many analysts have failed to account for last year’s frantic swings in exchange rates.

“The dollar suffered a stunning collapse in 2022 in its market share as a reserve currency, presumably due to its muscular use of sanctions,” Jen and his colleague Joana Freire wrote.

“Exceptional actions taken by the US and its allies against Russia have startled large reserve-holding countries,” most of which are emerging economies from the so-called Global South, they said.

As this FT infographic illustrates,  if you adjust for price changes the dollar’s share of official global reserve currencies (values of a currency held by foreign governments,) has gone from about 73 per cent in 2001 to around 55 per cent in 2021.

Then, last year, it fell to 47 percent of total global reserves.

 Source: Eurizon SLJ Capital

More ominously, the USD is losing its market share as a reserve currency at a much faster rate than is commonly believed.

"After steady declines in its global market share for the past two decades, in 2022 the dollar lost market share at a pace 10 times as rapidly. Analysts have failed to detect this big change because they calculate the nominal value of the world’s central banks’ dollar holdings without considering the changes in the price of the dollar. Adjusting for these price changes, the dollar, we calculate, has lost some 11 percent of its market share since 2016 and double that amount since 2008.

This erosion in the USD’s reserve currency status has accelerated precipitously since the start of the war in Ukraine. Exceptional actions taken by the US and its allies against Russia have startled large reserve-holding countries, most of which are from the Global South.

...Without the need for us to take sides in this debate on Ukraine, it seems reasonable to speculate that the main driver of the collapse in USD’s reserve status in 2022 may have reflected a panicked reaction to property rights being jeopardised. What we witnessed in 2022 was sort of a ‘defund-the-global-police’ moment, whereby many reserve managers in the world disagreed with the conduct of both Russia and the US."

To put it bluntly the greenback’s share in global reserves slid last year at 10 times the average speed of the past two decades as a number of countries looked for alternatives after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered sanctions.

As any economist or corporate CFO will tell you there are two pillars that maintain the US dollar in is dominant position and thus prop up the entire American economy: its role as the reserve currency of choice, and its dominant use in global finance and trade. Investors far too often confuse these two different concepts.

Stephen Jen argues. "While the Global South seems unwilling to continue to hold dollar assets, they  have lacked the ability to divest from the US dollar as an international currency, particularly for financial transactions."

While it will be very difficult to overcome the strong network effects that have been behind the dollar’s international currency status, the bid led by China, Russia and Iran, now joined by Saudi Arabia, India and Brazil loks strong enough to be capable of doing just that.The key to topple the dollar’s throne as an international currency is predicated on the relative developments and stability in the various financial markets, but with China Russia and Iran having recently cooperated in launching the Petroyuan and announced plans for a gold backed reserve currency to rival the dollar the outlook is bleak for the world's more powerful economy and in the light of internal divisions and the loonytoons policies of the current government it is only likely to become bleaker.

 

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Thursday, April 13, 2023

US-Saudi Petrodollar Deal Breaking Down as Russia Grabs Upper Hand

13 April 2023

The recently minted Saudi-Russia-China oil alliance, which paves the way for international oil trades to be settled in a currency of the vendors choice effectively spells the end of the 'Petrodollar' system, an agreement concluded in the early 1970s between Saudi Arabia, as the world's largest oil exporter, and the USA, issuer since the Bretton Woods agreement of 1945, of the main global reserve currency for international trade.

This development has the potential to cause all kinds of trouble for the US economy, which has been propped up for decades by the US$ status as reserve currency, because it enabled the USA to dictate to nations and organisations needing to buy dollars to settle their trades, what price the USA would pay for its imports and how much its trading partners would pay for US exports.. At the OPEC+ (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Cpuntries,) meeting earlier this month the decision by member states to cut crude output, for the second time since President Joe (Where am I, what's going on,) Biden flew to Saudi Arabia last summer to plead with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to increase oil output may be just the start of the oil producers revenge, after they have watched advanced nations try and fail to find alternative ways to power their economies which would have destroyed the oil producers revenue streams.

The April 2 announcement caused oil prices to spike by about $5 a barrel. OPEC’s projections on future demand show that the cuts will widen the supply shortfall later this year as futures contracts made before sanctions were applied to Russian oil exports expire. That means oil prices will go up further, with the usual knock on effects on food and manufactured goods, inflation will rise even faster, and recession risks become greater because consumers spending more on energy  and food will have less to spend on consumer goods. Worse, in spite of sanctions Russia is still managing to sell its oil via middle men in China, Iran, India, Pakistan and the Gulf States so Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, gets a bigger war-chest to fund his attack on Ukraine.

But what does the OPEC+ move tell us about the likely future for oil prices.

In a world of shifting geopolitical alliances, Saudi Arabia is breaking away from Washington’s orbit and cosying up to China and Russia which in addition to its detente with the traditional enemy and rival regional power Iran, is very bad news for businesses and citizens in the developed nations. The Saudis set oil production levels in coordination with Russia. When they wanted to ease tensions with regional rival Iran, they turned to China to broker a deal with the US left out of the loop. Western influence over the oil cartel, in other words, is no longer absolute and appears to be waning fast.

But while The White House  expects OPEC+ members  to dance to Washington's tune, all have their own priorities, from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s ambitious plans to reinvent his economy, to Putin’s war. Any extra revenue they get from charging more for oil will help and also serve China's long term aim of replacing the US$ as reserve currency with a trading system of its own creation.

Asked about concerns that OPEC+ has twice cut production since Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia, a State Department spokesperson said the administration is focused on controlling domestic energy prices and ensuring US energy security, adding that the US views production cuts as inadvisable given ongoing market volatility.

Meanwhile, the threat of competition from US shale fields, a deterrent to price hikes in the past, has receded. And while there’s a global effort to reduce fossil-fuel use — and higher prices will accelerate that effort — the dash to drill in the last year shows that the zero-carbon economy remains in the realm of wishful thinking than an achievable target in the short term.

However for the global economy, lower oil supply and higher prices are doubly bad news. The major exporters are the big winners, of course. For importers, like most European countries, more expensive energy is a double blow — dragging on growth even as inflation rises. Bloomberg Economics’ SHOK model predicts that for every $5 increase in oil prices, US inflation will rise by 0.2 percentage point, which  at a time when the Federal Reserve is struggling to bring prices under control is not welcome.

There are three key reasons why more such shocks may be in store: The geopolitical shift, the maturing of shale, and the Saudi spending splurge.

For decades, the US-Saudi “oil for security” pact has been the foundation of of the energy market.  Symbolized by the 1945 meeting between President Franklin D. Roosevelt and King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud, aboard a US cruiser in the Suez Canal, the deal to make US$ the reserve currency later gave the US access to Saudi oil in exchange for guaranteeing the kingdom’s security.

But the pact is no longer what it once was: 

In 2018, Washington Post columnist and Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi was assassinated at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

In 2019, Joe Biden — then a presidential candidate — threatened to turn Saudi Arabia into a pariah state and halt arms sales.

In 2021, early in the Biden presidency, the US government published an intelligence report assessing that Crown Prince Mohammed, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, was responsible for the Khashoggi assassination.

In October 2022, OPEC+ lowered oil production by 2 million barrels a day — less than three months after Biden flew to Riyadh seeking an increase. The White House blasted the move as “short-sighted.”

Last month, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to restore diplomatic ties in a deal brokered by China and signed in Beijing. The Saudi government has also agreed to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization – a group with China and Russia at the helm, and seen as a rival to Western institutions,  as a “dialogue member”.

"The Saudis are looking for an aggressive hedge," said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. "Given what the Saudis see as a radically unpredictable US policy, they think it's irresponsible not to look for a hedge. And by radically unpredictable, you're looking at a US policy that changed sharply between Obama and Trump and Biden."

In the aftermath of the April 2 move, Saudi officials said it was motivated by national priorities rather than any diplomatic agenda.

“OPEC+ has succeeded now and in the past in stabilizing oil markets, and contrary to claims by Western and industrial states this has nothing to do with politics,” former Saudi oil ministry adviser Mohammad Al Sabban said, according to Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper

 

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Over 4000 Civilians Have Died In Forgotten War. As attention has focused on Syria ans then on the efforts of the Obama administration, in its dying months, to avenge the defeat of the anointed successor Hillary Clinton and discredit the election victor and President - elect Donald Trump, and simultaneously demonize Russia and President Putin Black Belgians Refute ‘Poverty, Discrimination’ As Causes Of Arab Terror - It's A Cultural Thing “You know, we hear a lot about how the Arabs are a fragile community that suffers, but we, ‘les blackies,’ are discriminated against, too, and we hurt nobody”, Nico Atoba, an African Christian living in Brussels told the National Post for a feature the Canadian newspaper was assembling. USA Extends Drone war To Africa So why we wonder is the USA taking its drone war against the third world into deepest, sub Sahran Africa? There cannot be any reason for it, the cited aim of neutralising Boko Haram is not valid because boko Haram are not a standing army but a guerilla force that strikes and then melts away into the civilian population.
Turkey and Sadui Arabia Already Have Troops Fighting In Syria Even mainstream media has been forced to concede that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are apparently ready to send ground forces to the Syrian battlefield as Assad's forces, backed by Russian air power and Iranian elite troops but continue to grind down ISIS forces equipped with US made arms and ammunition via Saudi Arabia and funded by Turkey's illegal oil trade with the terrorist group. Humanitarian Crisis Unfolds in Yemen, As US-EU-NATO backed Saudi war destoys another nation.

Thursday, March 30, 2023

De - Dollarisation: China, Brazil Make Deal To Ditch US Dollar For Bilateral Trades

 The Move To Ditch The US Dollar Is Gathering Momentum

China and Brazil this week concluded a deal to conduct trade between their nations in their own in their own currencies, ditching the established reserve currency for global trade, US dollar as an intermediary, the Brazilian announced said on Wednesday. This is Beijing’s latest strike against the almighty greenback in its currency war aimed at shifting the balance of geopolitical and economic power from west to east.

The deal will empower China, the top rival to US economic hegemony, and South America's biggest economy, Brazil, to conduct their massive trade in Brazilian commodities and Chinese manufactured goods, and the associated financial transactions directly, exchanging yuan for reais and vice versa instead of going through the dollar, a system which allowed US businesses and goverment agencies to skim off the cream from each transacyion for themselves.

It is this systematic abuse of the financial power gained from being issuer of the reserve currency that has kept the US economy on top throughout the past 30 years of failing US foreign and industrial policy.

“The expectation is that this will reduce costs... promote even greater bilateral trade and facilitate investment,” the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (ApexBrasil) said in a statement.

It is not the first bilateral agreement to abandon the US$ as the de facto world currency this week.

China settled its first LNG trade in yuan; but gold remains the bigger winner in the global de-dollarization.


 

The U.S. dollar's role as the world's reserve currency was further tested as more nations chose to settle commodity trades with national currencies or the Chinese renminbi.

On Tuesday, the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange announced that it completed its first yuan-settled trade for liquid natural gas between China's National Offshore Oil Corporation and France's TotalEnergies.

According to press releases from the financial markets, confirmed by Reuters, 65,000 tonnes of LNG imported from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) changed hands. This latest  trade deal comes as China tries to establish the renminbi as an international non - dollar currency.

The trade also came after President Xi Jinping traveled to Saudi Arabia in early December to strengthen economic ties with the Middle East and encourage the region to use the renminbi to settle its oil and gas trades, a visit that has resulted in detente between the formerly hostile regional powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, the latter being a long term ally of China.

.At the same time, the renminbi has been Russia's defacto reserve currency for the past year since it invaded Ukraine, which prompted Western Nations led by the U.S. to impose harsh economic sanctions, cutting the nation off from Western financial markets.As a result of this collaboration with China, now also supported by India, the west's economic sanctions have economically harmed America's NATO allies far harder that they have Russia, which had no problem finding customers in South est Asia and Aftica eager to buy it oil and minerals without having to pay exorbitant commissions to Ameican middle - men.

23 Countries Now Abandoning US Dollar

A new world monetary system is being set up right now which will completely kill the US dollar, which is the world's reserve currency.

23 countries (60% of the world's GDP) are setting up swap lines which bypass the dollar and SWIFT, which is the dollar-based worldwide financial transaction system.

These countries include Russia, China, India, and even Germany, France, and the United Kingdom.

Once the new system is in place, the dollar won't be needed in these countries and a new reserve currency will come into being. All those dollars in foreign accounts will come home, which will annihilate the dollar dominated monetary system.

Also, China just announced that it will stop purchasing US Treasury bonds (holding dollars in reserve). This will force The Federal Reserve to print even more dollars than the $85 billion per month it's currently printing. NB: References to printing money in the financial press refer to the practice of borrowing money by selling bonds for hard currency. The seller must pay interest to the bondholder and also redeem the bond at face value after a fixed term (usually 2,5 or 10 years.) Bond trading is a complicated business and this is not the place for a more detailed explanation.)


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Monday, September 11, 2017

Currency Wars: Venezuela Is About to Ditch the Dollar in Major Blow to US:

In what amounts to the biggest blow yet to the U.S. economy, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said last week that his country will be looking to disengage itself from dependence on the U.S. dollar next week, Reuters reports.


In our omnibus webpage, Currency Wars, we have fully reported on the currency war being waged against the US economy by a group of nations led by Russia, China and Iran, with the aaim of replacing the $US as global reserve currency. According to the report Maduro will look to use the weakest of two official foreign exchange regimes (the mechanisms by which nations manage their sovereign currency in relation to other currencies and the foreign exchange market).


According to Reuters, Maduro was referring to Venezuela’s current official exchange rate, known as DICOM, in which the dollar can be exchanged for 3,345 bolivars. At the strongest official rate, one dollar buys only 10 bolivars, which may be one of the reasons why Maduro wants to opt for some of the weaker exchange rates.


“Venezuela is going to implement a new system of international payments and will create a basket of currencies to free us from the dollar,” Maduro said in a far reaching address to Venezuela's new legislative superbody. According to reports in national media he did not supply details of how his government proposed to achieve this, but with support from the BRICS bloc it should not prove difficult.


Maduro hinted that the South American country would look to using the yuan and a bundle of other currencies instead. Over the past three years Russia and China have signed bilateral agreements with many nations to settle cross border trades in the currency of the vendor, thus signalling their intent to end the era of the Petrodollar.



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